Screener

'Fast & Furious 6,' 'Hangover III' and 'Epic' race for Memorial Day audiences

Last year on Memorial Day, the only major player was Men in Black 3. This year, three wide releases are competing for audiences. That could mean more people show up to the movies, but it also means there will be some cannibalization between films.

The Hangover Part III and Fast & Furious 6 have a somewhat overlapping audience: young males. The Hangover Part III (3,555 theatres) opened yesterday to try to get a jump-start on the weekend, and also because it's the weaker film. Tracking only 22% positive on Rotten Tomatoes, this "unstylish action flick with comic asides" (as described by our Michael Sauter) is not faring well with critics. More importantly, many viewers were disappointed by The Hangover Part II. If people already feel as if they've been burned by the franchise, it's unlikely they'll turn out again. In a way, though, it seems this comedy can't win. The sequel was criticized for being too similar to the first film, yet Sauter faults the three-quel because it "changes up the franchise formula—and not in a good way." It seems like these sequels just can't win, so Warner Bros. is making a good decision to make this the (alleged) end to the franchise.

Fast & Furious 6 (3,658 theatres) is the franchise that keeps on giving. It seems like viewers have had more faith in the franchise than the studio, because screenwriters have to keep resurrecting characters they prematurely gave the boot. In this movie, it means placing a character in Japan to fill in a plot hole from a previous sequel, according to critic Daniel Eagan. Like 74% of Rotten Tomatoes critics, he enjoyed the "long, loud and expensive" movie, which "delivers what series fans want, although not quite as quickly or cleverly as before." Fast & Furious 6 will be the fastest out of the gate this weekend, and its four-day total could easily top $100 million.

The first animated film in over two months, Epic (3,882 theatres) should be seeing kids and their parents lining up for an outing. Yet there's a feeling among forecasters that this animated feature will have a tepid reception, especially if parents are savvy enough to realize there are plenty of other animated features in the pipeline for this summer, including Monsters University, Despicable Me 2, Turbo, Planes, and The Smurfs 2. Our critic, Frank Lovece, had the opposite reaction, calling Epic "one of the best features so far from Blue Sky Studios," and the movie itself full of "thematic richness."

It's rare for an indie romance to turn into a trilogy. But that's the case with Before Midnight (5 theatres), which picks up on the romance between Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy, this time while the duo is in Greece . Also in the mix this weekend is the latest from documentarian and workhorse Alex Gibney, We Steal Secrets: The Story of Wikileaks (4 theatres), which Eagan dubbed "brilliant but maddening."

After the four-day weekend, we'll be back on Tuesday to assess the impact of this jam-packed weekend.

'Star Trek Into Darkness' on its way to a $100 million weekend

Opening on Wednesday night in over 300 IMAX locations, Star Trek Into Darkness debuted to $3.3 million, similar to The Great Gatsby's early take for Thursday night screenings last week. Totals for Thursday haven't been tallied yet. Now playing in 3,868 theatres, the sci-fi sequel is expected to earn a weekend haul upwards of $100 million. One reason that the Wednesday night totals were so low was because Paramount only made the decision to release that evening last week--long after most fanboys would have made their Fandango purchases.

The 3D and IMAX feature has strong reviews, just like the 2009 original reboot. The 2009 Star Trek earned a 95% positive rating on Rotten Tomatoes, and the sequel is running 87% positive. I felt both movies were equally good, and if anything, the lower ratings this time around are just due to people raising the benchmark about what they expect a J.J. Abrams-directed Star Trek movie to be. The stakes are personal this time around. "One major improvement of Into Darkness is its more vivid villain," our critic Kevin Lally notes. Benedict Cumberbatch plays the adversary with "tremendously imposing fierceness and icy elegance," making the movie not only a battle of brute force but of cerebral maneuvering.

Just like with Iron Man 3, no other wide release wanted to play second fiddle to Star Trek Into Darkness. Given the similarity between the two films, Iron Man 3 should experience a larger-than-average drop this weekend, while last week's The Great Gatsby should dip only in relation to its so-so word-of-mouth.

For indie-seeking audiences, director Noah Baumbach's latest may be in black-and-white, but it's already being considered his most accessible work to date. Greta Gerwig stars in Frances Ha (4 theatres), a counterpoint to "Girls" that should appeal to urban 20-somethings and cinephiles alike. In my review, I praised the "spot-on, exquisitely crafted portrait of a floundering 20-something," and this is one movie I'm definitely rooting for. Another indie of note is the "genre gem" Black Rock, "a thriller riff" that gets "the job of entertainment done very well," according to our reviewer Doris Toumarkine. If the idea of innocent hikers being hunted by deranged army vets sounds fun to you, start standing in the ticket line.

On Monday, we'll see if Star Trek Into Darkness exceeded the $75 million opening of its 2009 predecessor, and if Frances Ha's unspooling suggests an indie success.

Will the glitter of 'Gatsby' outshine the second weekend of 'Iron Man 3'?

This weekend, Iron Man 3 will continue to coast back down from its sky-high debut. Given its incredible $175 million opening weekend, even week two is likely to exceed the opening of the overstuffed, glittery The Great Gatsby (3,535 theatres), the latest from director Baz Luhrmann, who specializes in visual excess. It's also Mother's Day on Sunday, and it's likely that this movie will beat Iron Man 3 when families choose Mom's pick. The light wedding comedy Peeples will also stand to benefit from Mother's Day outings.

Critics have been divided about Gatsby. It's currently tracking 45% on Rotten Tomatoes, and a positive or negative review seems to hinge on the author's opinion of Luhrmann's excess. Our critic Rex Roberts predicts that his take on F. Scott Fitzgerald's novel will "generate a buzz with young audiences," especially since it's required reading in most high school classrooms. "Bold, brazen and splendiferous," it's "gorgeous to watch if you enjoy this sort of spectacle." Whatever the result of the final product, interest in Gatsby is high, and it could reach $40 million.

Craig Robinson from "The Office" stars opposite "Scandal's" Kerry Washington in Peeples (2,041 theatres), a Meet the Parents transported to the milieu of the African-American elite. As a man (Robinson) prepares to propose to his girlfriend (Washington) on her family's gilded turf, he uncovers crazy secrets about the supposedly refined family. They're so outrageous, critic David Noh wonders "how any of them got away with their behavior for so long: secret, sometimes kinky sex lives; denied breast augmentation; kleptomania; booze and drug addiction; and a hidden nocturnal life for the Judge as he prowls the beach." That's just a hint of the humor in store for viewers. An opening in the $15-20 million would be right on target for the comedy.

After success in limited release, Mud will undergo a second expansion into 854 theatres this week. The Matthew McConaughey-led feature has already earned $5 million, and it could add at least 50% to that total in its third week.

On Monday, we'll see how Gatsby's visual feast went over with audiences, and how much progress Iron Man 3 made towards the $1 billion mark.

'Iron Man 3' takes the stage, could pass $150 million opening weekend

No other wide release dares to go up against the strongly armored Iron Man 3  (4,253 theatres). With no competition, the Robert Downey Jr.-led sequel could easily earn over $150 million in a weekend. Last year, The Avengers opened with over $200 million, but that had the added benefit of being super-superhero movie, with fellow franchise players like Thor, Captain America, and The Hulk in the mix. Many reviewers have come out in favor of the action-packed sequel, which has plenty of humor and "marks an exciting return to form for a franchise that had dipped in quality," notes our critic Daniel Eagan. People will likely see this movie not only as continuation of 2010's Iron Man 2, but also of last year's The Avengers. Overseas, the movie has already earned $300 million, an excellent indicator of success. Over 90% of advance sales on Fandango and Movietickets.com are for Iron Man 3, so it's clear this is the most anticipated movie so far this year.

For those who don't like explosions and superhero suits, there's also a strong selection of indies opening this weekend. The "wonderfully droll horror comedy" The Happy House, as described by critic David Noh, will release through First Run in New York City.

Acclaimed Danish director Susanne Bier "refreshes the conventions and clichés of the rom-com" with Love Is All You Need (4 theatese), according to FJI's Erica Abeel. Sparks fly at a wedding, but it's not the couple at the altar--it's the father of the groom (Pierce Brosnan) and the mother of the bride (Trine Dyrholm).

Playing hitman Richard Kuklinski "with an unsettling tunnel-vision intensity," Michael Shannon turns in a stellar performance in The Iceman (4 theatres), according to our critic Michael Sauter. Although he thought the movie had flaws, including a lack of "dramatic depth and intensity" compared to the best anti-hero movies, like Taxi Driver and Serpico, Shannon's performance is not one of them. In a leading role, he only confirms his "powerful, often scary presence as an onscreen character actor."

An update of the Henry James novel What Maisie Knew will open in New York City. Set in the Big Apple, the story centers on a young girl who is shuttled between her self-centered, divorced parents.

On Monday, the big question will be just how high Iron Man 3 can go in his jetpack. $150 million is the insider target figure for a wow-worthy debut.

 

'Pain & Gain' and 'Big Wedding' inject comedy into the marketplace

Last week’s release of Oblivion signaled that the box office was thawing out from winter. This week brings two more releases, the R-rated comedies Pain & Gain and The Big Wedding. Pain & Gain should open above $20 million, and Big Wedding should scoop up half that amount.

Michael Bay directs Pain & Gain (3,277 theatres), the tale of two ‘roided bodybuilders who turn to a life of crime. Bay usually helms overmuscled movies, not stars, so the story is a bit of a change of pace for him. Still, that didn’t stop critic Daniel Eagan from observing that although the “movie does have less helicopter footage than a typical Transformers entry…Bay stills turn a simple shot of a detective's house into a mini-tribute to Sergio Leone's crane work.” He praises the performances of Mark Wahlberg and Dwayne Johnson, but notes that what  “could have been a breakout hit… devolves into a chase story with low ambitions.”

After multiple delays, The Big Wedding (2,633 theatres) comes to theatres, but it has almost nothing to offer besides its all-star cast. Critic Frank Lovece faulted the barely-believable premise: divorced parents of the groom pretend they’re still married in order to appease the conservative parents of the bride. Despite a great cast that includes Diane Keaton, Amanda Seyfried, Robert De Niro, and Susan Sarandon, the comedy "fails across the board from farce to comedy-of-manners." The well-known stars may draw some eyes to the feature, but even $10 million will be generous for this less-than-deserving comedy.

Matthew McConaughey stars (along with Reese Witherspoon, recently photographed not on the red carp but in a police station) in Mud (363 theatres). The drama centers on two boys who discover an outlaw (McConaughey) on the banks of the Mississippi River and help him get food and find his sweetheart (Witherspoon). It's a solid feature, and hopefully one that will attract the attention of cinephiles.

"Colin Firth and Emily Blunt play dress-up" in Arthur Newman (250 theatres), a "sweet, semi-romantic road trip" according to THR's John DeFore. A rather odd plot that involves the characters taking on the identities of others seems a bit hard to market, which makes me feel this movie may end up like Blunt's well-regarded Salmon Fishing in the Yemen, which made just a ripple at the box office despite a decent smattering of applause from critics. The release will also be a test of marketing chops for Cinedigm, a newbie distributor.

On Monday, we'll see if Pain & Gain and The Big Wedding made solid debuts. Then it's less than a week until Iron Man 3 kicks off the prime summer movie season.

 

Underripe 'Oblivion' offers a taste of summer movie season

Oblivion is a visual effects-heavy sci-fi movie. It's releasing in IMAX. It stars Tom Cruise. Maybe a decade ago, these things would give the movie prime placement in the summer movie season. But now Cruise is clocking well over two decades in the movie business, and he's settling for slightly less competitive spots on the release slate. Our critic Daniel Eagan likes Oblivion (3,782 theatres), but he's also quick to point out that the "sleek, good-looking sci-fi adventure [is] haunted by the ghosts of better films," and predicts it "should make a splash at the box office until more mainstream blockbusters take over." Oblivion could open in the high $30 million range in the U.S. Overseas, it's already racked up $77 million, affirming the international box office's interest in tentpoles with known quantities like Cruise.


With no other similar competitors, 42 is expected to hold strong. Its second weekend could be off by just 25%, which would give the Jackie Robinson biopic an impressive second-week total of $20 million. Although most school holidays are wrapping up, The Croods should earn over $10 million, which will bring it over the $150 million mark domestically and make it one of DreamWorks Animation's bigger successes.

The Place Beyond the Pines will expand to 1,542 theatres in its fourth week. The Ryan Gosling-led picture expanded into over 500 screens last week and maintained a $7,000 per-screen average. The humanistic crime drama should do at least as well this week as it did last week, bolstered by strong indie cred and the supporting performances of Eva Mendes and Bradley Cooper.

Rocker/filmmaker Rob Zombie will roll out his fifth film, The Lords of Salem, in 300 theatres. "Is Rob Zombie the Woody Allen of horror auteurs?" Our critic Maitland McDonagh speculates. Not only does he assemble an impressive cast, he "has the look of a low-budget '70s horror film down cold, and it's packed with allusions to genre classics and cult favorites." That may be enough to make the horror flick a hit among guts-and-gore afficianados.

On Monday, we'll see if Oblivion jump-started the summer movie season and if the solitary new wide release gave the returning pictures some breathing room.

'42' should hit a triple while 'Scary Movie 5' may not even get on base

Finally, an adult-leaning picture that doesn't involve car chases, mobsters, or kidnapping. 42 (3,003  theatres) is one of the first dramas to release this year that aims to connect with audiences in search of quality. Baseball fans, history buffs, and African-Americans (or any
combination of the three) should also be among the viewers turning out this weekend. The question is whether the idea of seeing Jackie Robinson on the big screen will outweigh the poor box office precedents for this picture. Recent baseball pictures (including Moneyball and Benchwarmers ) just haven't opened above $20 million. Of course, if you look way back, you have both A League of Their Own, which earned over $100 million back in 1992, and Field of Dreams, which earned $64 million in 1989. In spirit, those are closer to 42. However, the most recent story of triumph in a predominantly white space, the flying movie Red Tails, didn't even cross $50 million. It's a mixed bag out there. Many predict an opening of $20 million, but I could see the movie going even higher. 42 gives a saintly portrait of Robinson, which doesn't necessarily make for high drama, but the inspiring, feel-good story could have audiences coming back due to positive word-of-mouth. Despite its flaws, it's one of the best wide releases to come out this year, and I'm rooting for Robinson and 42.

Scary Movie 5 (3,402 theatres) is back from the dead, and this time Lindsay Lohan, Charlie Sheen, and Ashley Tisdale are among the stars in this horror parody franchise. Scary Movie 4 came out a good six years ago, and such a long lag between sequels is dicey. It's most likely that the release will fall flat, opening under $20 million.

Two specialty releases are scaling up. After debuting last week to a $32,000 per-screen average, Trance will expand into 438 locations. The Place Beyond the Pines will go from 30 to 514 locations in its third week. Pines will likely earn at least $1 million in the expanded release, while Trance should be somewhere in the mid-six figures.

Writer/director Terence Malick, who is famous for taking years to edit films, has a surprise: another film just two years after his last, The Tree of Life. Ben Affleck, Olga Kurylenko and Rachel McAdams star in To the Wonder (5 locations), which FJI critic Chris Barsanti describes as "a floating beauty of a philosophical love story that can’t yank its head out of the wispy clouds of meaning long enough to consider the humans mucking about on terra firma." That about sums up the artistic work, which has beautiful visuals but not much of a plot.

On Monday, we'll see if 42 scored and if Scary Movie 5 revived the aging franchise.

 

Scary seconds: 'Evil Dead' and 'Jurassic Park 3D' to freak out audiences

This weekend brings a bit of an eerie déjà vu for audiences. The two new wide releases tread familiar territory. Evil Dead is a remake of the 1981 horror feature that later turned into a cult hit, and Jurassic Park is a re-release of the 1993 movie, only in 3D.

Evil Dead (3,025 theatres) "will make you comprehensively uncomfortable," warns critic Lianne Spiderbaby, who also urges those with a "weak stomach" to stay away. Horror fans, though, should be enough to bring the remake to an opening above $20 million. Courtesy of Platinum Dunes (not responsible for this remake), there have been many reboots of horror classics like Texas Chainsaw Massacre in recent years. Some hit, others don't. The updated visuals and characters will undoubtedly draw some people who don't like the washed-out look on their VHS tape. It's likely both people who have seen the original and those that recognize the movie name but just haven't seen the original will be among the attendees. If Evil Dead is a success, a remake of the sequel won't be too far away.

The most terrifying movie of my childhood--and many others'--will re-release in 3D. Jurassic Park (2,771 theatres) isn't necessarily looking for the surprise success of some re-releases. For Jurassic Park 3D, however, there are two things that will make the re-release worthwhile: next year's Jurassic Park 4 and China. Since Jurassic Park 4 will come out next summer, the re-release of the original now is just free publicity and a way to drive 3D Blu-ray sales.

The money will come from China. When Titanic 3D re-released last year, it earned $285 million overseas. Half of that amount, or $145 million, came from China. Meanwhile, the re-release earned just $57 million in the U.S. That type of box-office breakdown is just unheard of, but it demonstrates why China is such an important emerging market. Audiences in China had never had a chance to see the original on the big screen, making attendance a must. Jurassic Park 3D should rake up money in China, or else someone's not doing something right.

In between creating the opening ceremony for the 2012 London Olympics, Danny Boyle filmed Trance (4 theatres), a Hitchcock-esque suspenseful tale that received good marks from critic Rex Roberts. The "stylish, diverting thriller," which stars James McAvoy, has an "original idea complemented by a witty script, imaginative direction and appealing cast, and enough sex and violence to keep us from thinking too hard about plot twists." That sounds like enough to whet the appetites of arthouse audiences and make this a spring indie pick.

Also in the mix is The Company You Keep (5 theatres), which stars and is directed by Robert Redford. Critic Doris Toumarkine predicts that the story of "a former radical forced to go underground but living a quiet, responsible life under a false identity until a journo outs him" will appeal to an "upscale audience...of the '60s generation" that may welcome the chance to revisit the radicalism in their own youth. With its older star, it will certainly appeal to the aging arthouse audiences--perhaps it will even approach the benchmark set by last year's retiree-fueled hit The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.

On Monday, we'll see which movie audiences chose to terrify them, and if either of the arthouse releases received the biggest push for their platform releases.

 

 

'The Croods' kicks off school holiday while 'Spring Breakers' expands for the college set

The first major animated film to open this year, The Croods (4,046 theatres), could easily exceed the mid-$40 million figure Fox is predicting for the DreamWorks Animation production. A debut weekend in that range would put it in line with the March opening of DreamWorks Animation's How to Train Your Dragon. At the time, that opening for Dragon was seen as low, but it ended up grossing five times its opening weekend, or $217 million. That's an excellent multiple. In comparison, DWA's Megamind opened $3 million higher than Dragon but had a cumulative total that was $75 million lower. The difference here is partly one of quality: Dragon had a 98% critics rating to Megamind's 73% approval on Rotten Tomatoes. The Croods is currently falling below both of those numbers: just 61% of critics have come out in favor of the film. One of those is FJI's Kevin Lally, who lauded the "dazzling 3D style" and "lively vocal performances" of the leads. The concept of a prehistoric family battling to survive feels novel enough, which could give the animated feature a boost. That plus the pent-up demand for a quality animated feature (the ratings are still higher than those for Escape from Planet Earth) and the release timed to kids' spring break could spell great box-office returns.

With an early 2013 glut of R-rated content geared towards adult males, Olympus Has Fallen (3,098 theatres) may be the latest to fall flat. However, the scope and budget of this "Die Hard in the White House" feature at least feels larger than its comparable predecessors. But then you read the reviews. Our Daniel Eagan was unimpressed with the "generic thriller marred by poor special effects." It also earns its R rating with "grim, ugly" and graphic depictions of violence. Gerard Butler, who leads as a Secret Service agent, hasn't been much of a draw for audiences lately (see: Playing for Keeps) and a lackluster opening could only confirm that his star status is in jeopardy. At least this time, he'll have the help of Morgan Freeman playing House Speaker and acting President.

Tina Fey plays an uptight admissions officer in Admission (2,160 theatres), a "bracingly smart, affecting romp" that critic David Noh thought was "one of the best comedies in a while." Paul Rudd plays the leader of an alternative school who's gunning to get one of his students into Princeton. Focus is smartly limiting the release, and fewer auditoriums should lead to a greater concentration of laughter. Still, this one will open low, to around $10 million, and then will rely on word-of-mouth to turn it into a quiet, Pitch Perfect-like hit.

Spring Breakers wowed last weekend with a stunning per-screen average. It expands to 1,104 theatres today, and the big question is if its success in specialty theatres in New York and Los Angeles will translate to success across the nation. Because of doubts about the movie's viability, sub-$10 million estimates have been circulating, but I think it could potentially go much, much higher. People drawn in by director Harmony Korine's auteur status will be sitting next to people who are just looking for American Pie-style debauchery.

Opening in just 4 theatres, The Sapphires offers a "familiar but supremely well-told and produced tale" about four Aboriginal young women who entertain the troops during the Vietnam War, assesses critic Doris Toumarkine. The socially aware feature about a group's rise of success, which I gave a shout-out to earlier this week, is a ripe offering for specialty-seeking audiences.

On Monday, we'll see which films were in the winners in a weekend crowded with a number of attractive offerings.

 

'Burt Wonderstone' goes up against second week of 'Oz'

One thing's certain this weekend: Oz the Great and Powerful will place first for the second week in a row. The special effects fantasy should drop a bit less than 50% and earn in the mid-$40 millions. While it's not quite as strong as Disney's 2010 fantasy Alice in Wonderland, the studio did a pretty good job of replicating that successful formula.

Steve Carell and Jim Carrey play rival magicians in The Incredible Burt Wonderstone (3,160 theatres). The last time the comedy duo starred together, Carell was the up-and-comer and Carrey was the big draw. Now, Carell's the big comedy star and Carrey's the one playing second fiddle. The "consistently entertaining diversion" benefits from "a gifted cast that puts a fresh spin on even the most tried-and-true crowd-pleaser plot developments,"declares FJI critic Michael Sauter. The comedy should approach $20 million. Maybe the success of Identity Thief has put audiences in a good mood and brightened the market for comedies.

Halle Berry plays a 911 operator who gets a call from a girl (Abigail Breslin) who has been kidnapped and confined to a car trunk in The Call (2,507 theatres). Although the thriller is "sometimes straightforward and familiar," notes critic Doris Toumarkine, " it effectively revs up audiences and gets them cheering for the good guys." It's possible the thriller will play like the female version of Taken, and resonate with older female moviegoers.

Reactions to Spring Breakers (3 theatres) have been extreme. Some are focusing on its provenance, from auteur Harmony Korine, but FJI critic David Noh sees the bikini-filled picture as just a "commercial wannabe that still suffers from art-house pretensions." He found the "wild and wooly update of Where the Boys Are" to be "scarily, snarkily representative of a generation," which made  him "want to weep for the future." New York's David Edelstein mused that it might be "among the perviest movies ever made — although by spelling out why, I fear I’ll only make some people want to see it more." Not many raunchy R-rated teen movies elicit such detailed takedowns, so it's fair to say this one is (probably purposely) aggressively offensive.

On Monday, we'll see if The Incredible Burt Wonderstone provided a light comedic counterpoint to the March behemoth Oz the Great and Powerful, and if Spring Breakers proved that sex sells.